توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s 4 August temperature market is anchored to the highest reading at Haneda Airport, and the live setup points to a very warm day rather than an extreme one. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Tokyo shows daily highs of roughly 82°F to 90°F, with the month’s average high around 86°F, while other August guides put Tokyo’s typical daytime maximum near 31°C and note the persistent heat and humidity that usually lift afternoon readings above the morning baseline.[1][14][16]

For framing the current 0% YES price, the key comparison is that Tokyo often sits in a broad summer band where mid-30s Celsius are possible but not guaranteed, and Haneda can run a little cooler than the inland city centre on some days. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s August daily data show Tokyo-area maxima already in the mid-30s Celsius early in the month, including Haneda at 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August, which is enough to keep the distribution well above mild-weather levels but still leaves the exact settlement range highly dependent on the day’s peak and any cloud or rain interruption.[7][10]

The main catalysts for traders are the official hourly evolution at Haneda and any shift in short-term forecast guidance as the day develops. Timeanddate’s Tokyo hourly page already showed 88°F conditions this morning UTC, and forecast services are flagging today as partly cloudy with highs around 33°C to 28°C depending on model and location, so the market will move most if later updates sharpen the expected ceiling or if showers suppress the maximum before the settlement window closes.[2][6][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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