توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 5 August is being set by the reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with settlement tied to the daily maximum recorded there rather than broader city averages. JMA’s August daily values for Tokyo show Haneda already reached 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August, while the main Tokyo station posted 36.5°C and 35.3°C on those two days, underlining how quickly the local range can lift into the mid-30s in a strong heat spell.[1]

That context matters because the market’s 0% YES price is far below both seasonal norms and the current forecast profile. Tokyo’s August average maximum is commonly around 31°C, but short-term forecasts for 5 August point higher, with timeanddate showing lows around 77°F/25°C early in the morning and highs of about 88°F/31°C around midday, while AccuWeather’s monthly view also places 5 August near 86°F/30°C.[2][11][5]

The main catalyst is the day’s realised heat curve at Haneda, especially whether sunshine, weak sea breeze and any overnight cloud cover allow temperatures to push above the low-30s before the afternoon peak. Traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily table and any last-minute forecast updates, because a one-degree shift can move the result between adjacent brackets in a tightly clustered market.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.