توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 7 August is typically decided by a narrow band around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and the market is anchored to the Weather Underground daily observations rather than the headline day-high summary. JMA’s August 2026 daily data already show Tokyo-area maxima moving well into summer-heat territory, with nearby stations such as Tokyo, Hachioji and Nerima posting 35–38°C readings in the first two days of the month, which is consistent with a hot-season setup rather than a marginal one.[1] Seasonal guides for Tokyo in August also point to average highs around 30–31°C, with frequent pushes above 30°C and humidity that supports sustained heat through the afternoon.[4][9]

For traders, the key question is whether Haneda reaches the upper end of that normal August range or briefly spikes above it, because small shifts in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing and rainfall can move the outcome between adjacent temperature bands. Longer-range August guidance for Tokyo still points to warm conditions around the high 80s Fahrenheit, while Japanese summer coverage has highlighted above-normal national heat risk and the late-July to mid-August period as the most intense stretch.[2][13] That leaves the market especially sensitive to same-day observations from Haneda rather than broader Tokyo forecasts, since airport readings can run a little cooler than inland central wards during strong inland-heat episodes.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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