توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Haneda Airport Station, with the market currently pricing any outcome above the lowest range at zero probability. This reflects the timing: mid-July marks the transition from the humid tail-end of the Tsuyu rainy season to the hot, sunny Manatsu (midsummer) phase, when major cities like Tokyo routinely see average highs of 25–33°C and frequent peaks above 35°C [2].

Historical patterns for mid-July in Tokyo show temperatures consistently landing between 28°C and 35°C, with 28°C already trading at 100% probability in a similar market for 13 July 2026 [1]. The current 0% YES probability for any higher range appears misaligned with seasonal norms, as urban Tokyo often exceeds 35°C during this period, and humidity levels regularly surpass 75%, amplifying heat stress [2].

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Haneda Airport Station as the settlement window closes on 16 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, since real-time data will determine resolution [2]. No external announcements or injury news apply here—this is purely a weather-dependent event, and the sole dependency is the official temperature reading published on Wunderground’s daily history page for RJTT [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.