توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s midsummer heat is set to peak on 17 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any YES outcome suggests traders expect the day’s maximum to fall outside the defined resolution range, likely due to an unusually narrow or low threshold set for the contract.

Historically, July in Tokyo sees average highs near 31–33°C at Haneda, with extreme days occasionally reaching 35°C or more during humid, stagnant conditions. In 2023, the station recorded 35.2°C on 19 July, while 2022 saw 34.8°C on 17 July, indicating that temperatures on this specific date have frequently hit the upper end of typical summer ranges. The 0% probability implies the market’s range may be set below these historical peaks, making a YES outcome unlikely unless a rare cooling anomaly occurs.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily weather outlooks and real-time radar feeds for signs of convective clouds or sea-breeze shifts that could suppress temperatures. A sudden shift in the Pacific high-pressure system or an incoming rain band could drop the day’s maximum below the range. No major weather disruptions are forecast as of 10 AM UTC on 17 July, but hourly updates from JMA and Wunderground’s live history page will be critical as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.