توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature is a straightforward summer heat-market, and the current **0% YES** pricing implies the listed threshold is viewed as very unlikely to be reached in the settlement window. July in Tokyo is normally hot and humid, with major-city averages often in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius and daytime peaks frequently pushing into the low 30s, so the market is really asking whether the day produces an unusually strong hot spell rather than an ordinary midsummer reading.[3]

Comparable late-July conditions in the Tokyo area usually depend on how far the Pacific high-pressure pattern extends over the Kanto region and whether cloud, rain, or sea-breeze effects cap the afternoon maximum. A local forecast for nearby Nishi-Tokyo-shi showed a sunny high of 33°C for Wednesday 23 July, which is consistent with a warm, but not extreme, setup rather than the kind of heat that would make a much higher range the clear favourite.[2]

For traders, the key catalysts are the daytime forecast updates before the noon UTC settlement cut-off and any late changes in cloud cover, showers, or wind direction that could suppress the airport reading. Wunderground’s Haneda history page is the resolution source, so the decisive number will be the station’s recorded daily high rather than a citywide estimate; broader Tokyo forecasts such as The Weather Network’s also point to mid-30s daytime heat with some rain risk, which can matter if showers arrive early enough to hold down the maximum.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.