توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-July heat profile makes this market a question of how far above the seasonal norm the daytime high runs, not whether it becomes warm. Tokyo summer averages are usually around 25°C to 30°C, with temperatures often pushing above 30°C in peak summer, and July is typically hot and humid across the capital.[1][2] For a Haneda reading, that points to a settlement band where low-30s Celsius is a plausible baseline rather than an outlier, especially if the day turns into a stable midsummer build rather than a short-lived warm spell.[1][4]

The 0% YES price looks most fragile if traders are anchoring to cooler historical late-July days rather than the broader summer pattern. Comparable July conditions in Tokyo commonly feature high humidity, with many guides noting daytime peaks above 35°C on the hottest days and recommending early-morning activity because 11:00 to 16:00 is often the most oppressive stretch.[3][4] That makes a sub-30°C maximum possible but not the default expectation in a normal high-summer setup, particularly if sunshine dominates and rain stays limited.[2][3]

What matters now is the synoptic pattern over the final days before settlement: cloud cover, rainfall, and any typhoon-adjacent disturbance can suppress the afternoon high, while a clear, stagnant air mass can lift it quickly.[3] Traders should watch Tokyo-area forecasts and any official airport weather updates for the 24–72 hours ahead of the window, because the result is based on the single highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport during the day rather than a daily mean or a night-time reading. If a heat advisory lands or models shift towards stronger southerly flow, the upper temperature bucket becomes materially more likely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.