توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July represents the peak of Japan's summer season, when the metropolitan area regularly experiences sustained heat waves driven by the Pacific high-pressure system. Haneda's coastal location in Ōta Ward moderates extremes slightly compared to inland Tokyo, though temperatures typically range between 32–35°C during late July.

Historical precedent shows Tokyo has recorded temperatures exceeding 37°C on multiple occasions during late July in recent decades. The 2019 heat wave saw Haneda reach 36.4°C on 23 July, whilst inland Otemachi recorded 38.4°C the same month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally cool July or uncertainty about the specific resolution mechanics. Given Haneda's consistent pattern of high temperatures during this period and the airport's established measurement protocols, the probability distribution should reflect typical late-July conditions rather than outlier scenarios.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for heat wave intensity and duration. El Niño or La Niña conditions established by mid-2026 will influence whether the Pacific high-pressure system strengthens or weakens during the settlement window. Seasonal atmospheric patterns favour above-average temperatures, making extreme cold highly unlikely, though tropical storm activity could theoretically suppress heat if systems track into the region during late July.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.