توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 17 August 2026, with the market resolving based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. August represents mid-winter in New Zealand's capital, when temperatures typically range between 8–13°C, making extreme heat unlikely during this period.

Wellington's winter climate is shaped by its exposed coastal position and southerly latitude. Historical August data shows the airport station rarely exceeds 15°C on any given day, with temperatures above 18°C virtually unprecedented during this month. The 0% crowd probability reflects the seasonal reality: mid-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere make high temperatures meteorologically implausible. Even anomalously warm August days at Wellington rarely breach 16°C, and such occurrences require specific atmospheric patterns—typically a northwesterly flow bringing subtropical air masses—that are statistically uncommon during this period.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from mid-August 2026 onwards, though these carry substantial uncertainty at such distance. The critical factor will be whether any unusual pressure systems develop that could drive warm air southward from lower latitudes. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which records readings at regular intervals, will be the definitive source; discrepancies with summary high-low figures are possible but rare. Given Wellington's consistent winter pattern and the month's position in the Southern Hemisphere's coldest season, the probability of reaching even moderately warm temperatures remains exceptionally low.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.