توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature at the airport on 4 August is usually set by a narrow band of winter daytime warmth rather than any extreme surge. August averages in Wellington sit around **12°C** for daytime highs, with cool nights and frequent cloud or rain, so the market is effectively asking whether the day reaches the upper end of its normal winter range or stays close to the low teens.[4][15][16] With the current crowd pricing at 0% for YES, the market is implying that an unusually warm reading is not expected, which is consistent with the city’s typical August climate profile.[9][15]

Historical framing points the same way: Wellington in August is generally cool, breezy and variable, with average highs clustered near 11–12°C and limited sunshine. Recent forecast sources for early August also show temperatures mainly in the single digits to low teens, for example BBC observations at Wellington/Intl around **10°C** and Met Office daytime maxima around **9–13°C** in the near term.[3][6] That matters because the settlement is based on the day’s *highest* airport temperature, so even a brief sun break or lighter wind can lift the reading a couple of degrees above the daily average, but the evidence still points to a modest ceiling rather than a hot-outlier outcome.[3][6][9]

The main catalysts to watch are the day-of airport forecast shifts, cloud breaks, wind direction, and any change in precipitation timing. Wellington is sensitive to southerly and onshore flows, which suppress daytime heating, while calmer or sunnier spells can add enough lift to change the winning temperature band.[2][3][6] Traders should also watch the Wunderground history page for the final airport observation sequence, because the market resolves on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington Intl Airport Station rather than a citywide forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.