توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport’s maximum temperature on 5 August will be set by the day’s highest reading at the airport weather station, so the key issue is whether the afternoon top value stays in the low single digits or lifts into the mid-teens. The current 0% yes price implies the crowd is not treating a warmer-than-usual August spike as a live scenario, and that fits Wellington’s winter pattern, where August averages are typically around 9°C to 12°C rather than anything close to summer-like warmth.[3][6][17]

Recent comparable readings also point to a tight temperature band rather than a broad range. Forecast-style pages for Wellington around early August show daytime peaks clustered near 10°C to 13°C, while the Met Office’s current Wellington weather page has recently shown afternoon highs around 10°C to 11°C after a cool overnight start, which is consistent with a low-volatility winter profile.[10][14][15] That sort of distribution matters for this market because the settlement bands will be decided by the single highest hourly or sub-hourly observation, not the day’s average.

The main catalysts are the local forecast updates, cloud cover, wind direction, and any late change in timing of the warmest part of the day. A sunnier, lighter-wind afternoon would raise the chance of a brief overshoot into a higher band, while persistent onshore flow or rain would suppress the cap and favour the colder ranges; traders should watch the airport-specific forecast through the day rather than relying on citywide Wellington figures.[12][15][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.