توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature will be set by the warmest reading logged at Wellington International Airport, with the market resolved from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than any headline high/low summary. The current weather picture points to a cool, unsettled day: AccuWeather has Wellington at 57°F/49°F, cloudy and breezy with rain developing later, while other forecast pages cluster the day’s top temperature around 12–14°C, which is a modest range by local August standards.[1][2][5][12]

That context makes the crowd’s **0% YES** look like a very strong lean against a materially warm outcome. August in Wellington is usually cool, with forecast and climatology pages showing typical highs in the low teens Celsius and only limited upside beyond that; recent monthly and forecast views also keep most late-week highs around 11–13°C, not far above seasonal norms.[3][4][14] For this market, the main analogue is a standard winter southerly or wet northerly setup: unless the airport gets an early burst of sun or downslope warming before cloud and rain arrive, the day’s peak should remain inside a low-teens band rather than moving meaningfully higher.[2][11]

The key catalyst is the sequence of hourly observations at Wellington Intl Airport on Weather Underground, because the settlement source is the **Daily Observations** table and not the summary strip. Traders should watch for whether the temperature briefly reaches the upper end of the forecast range before cloud thickens and rainfall becomes more organised; AccuWeather and Weather Underground both point to increasing cloud and rain later, which caps the upside window.[1][6] If the airport already sits near 10°C in the morning, a high around 12–14°C remains the most likely endpoint, leaving little room for a surprise that would shift the market materially away from the current 0% pricing.[5][6][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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