توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 5 August is set to be taken from the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, and the market’s current 0% YES implies traders see virtually no path away from the favoured band. In late-summer Hong Kong, overnight minima are usually held up by warm seas, high humidity and frequent cloud, so a low in the mid-to-high 20s is the baseline rather than an outlier. HKO’s own seasonal and regional material points to typical August conditions dominated by warm, moist air and intermittent showers, which tends to limit radiative cooling after midnight.[4][5][17]

Recent market pricing is also consistent with that background: Polymarket has the main outcome clustered at 27°C, with 26°C the only meaningful alternative, and it notes that the observable forecast set and short-range guidance were aligned with a 27°C minimum. Comparable recent August cases show how quickly the floor can move only when rainfall is heavier and more persistent; HKO’s August 2025 summary recorded a monthly low of 24.0°C on 5 August during incessant downpour, underscoring that a materially cooler print normally needs broad synoptic disruption rather than a routine shower band.[1][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the HKO’s day-of and post-day issuance of the relevant “Daily Extract”, because the market cannot settle until that file is published and the exchange has stated that later revisions will not count. The practical line move, if any, will come from the combination of overnight rain coverage, cloud amount and wind strength in the Observatory’s local forecast and readings pages; a shift from 27°C to 26°C would usually require sustained cloud and rain suppressing the pre-dawn minimum. Official city weather bulletins issued on 5 August also indicate a broadly hot, humid regime across the region, which matters because it supports the market’s current preference for the warmer outcome.[1][2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.