توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong Observatory temperatures on 31 July are usually well above this market’s current 2% implied chance of a very low reading, with July daily minima typically around 27–29C and the month’s record low still sitting in the mid-20s. The Observatory’s July rankings show the lowest monthly minimum on record at 27.7C in 2019, while a separate July daily weather record notes 31 July 2019 fell to 24.5C after heavy rain from Wipha, which is an outlier rather than the norm.[1][3]

That historical split matters because the market resolves off the single lowest temperature observed that day, not the daily mean, so a sharp rainband or thunderstorm early or late in the day can matter more than the broad monthly climate profile.[2][3] In practice, the main catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly readings, any tropical cyclone or rain warning updates, and the final Daily Extract once the day is closed; 2024 readings on 31 July already showed 27C at 2 a.m., underlining how quickly the overnight minimum can set the range before sunrise.[7][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.