توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s 17 August high is usually set by late-summer heat rather than one-off cool spells, and the market is anchored to the airport station’s Daily Observations table rather than the headline day-high figure. August norms in Chengdu sit around 30°C, with reputable climate summaries putting typical daytime highs in the 28–35°C range and noting that mid-August is often among the hottest parts of the month[1][2][3].

That framing makes a 0% YES price hard to reconcile with the climatology: the relevant band is ordinarily well above the low-20s and can still touch the mid-30s on hotter days[1][2][3]. A trader should watch whether the forecast keeps Chengdu under persistent cloud and rain, because short-lived showers often do little to suppress the day’s maximum if sunshine returns after midday; by contrast, a prolonged wet or cooler spell would be the main way the reading slips into a lower band[1][3][4]. The settlement point is at 12:00Z on 17 August, so any morning-to-midday temperature trend at Shuangliu International Airport matters more than the evening cooling cycle.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.