توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s Incheon International Airport station will record its peak temperature for 21 July 2026, with the market settling on the Celsius range containing that highest reading. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome reflects a misalignment with historical July data, where average highs sit at 28°C and 27°C is the frontrunner at 86% probability on Polymarket[1].

Historical patterns show Seoul in July typically reaches 28°C, with a 43% chance of rain and high humidity averaging 80%, creating conditions where temperatures rarely dip below 27°C on clear days[2]. The 0% YES probability contradicts this baseline, as 27°C alone commands 86% market confidence, suggesting the current pricing may be an outlier rather than a reflection of meteorological reality[1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily history page for the Incheon station as the settlement clock ticks, watching for real-time temperature updates that could shift odds before the 2026-07-21T12:00:00Z deadline. No external announcements or weather forecasts are expected to alter the outcome, as the resolution depends solely on the recorded peak temperature for that specific day[1]. The 28°C range, holding 10% probability, remains the next plausible outcome if humidity and cloud cover push temperatures slightly higher[1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.