توقع: Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's August temperatures consistently rank amongst China's most extreme, with the city regularly recording daily highs exceeding 38°C during mid-August. Historical data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport shows that 17 August typically falls within the peak summer heat period, when afternoon temperatures frequently breach 39–40°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an unusually cool outcome for this date, despite August being climatically Wuhan's hottest month.

Comparable August dates at Wuhan Tianhe show consistent patterns: the past five years have recorded daily highs between 36–39°C during mid-August, with only occasional dips below 35°C. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical precision element; traders should verify historical readings from that specific source to calibrate expectations accurately. Any deviation from typical August conditions would require unusual atmospheric patterns—sustained cloud cover, unexpected precipitation, or anomalous air mass positioning.

The settlement window closes on 17 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC, meaning the market resolves based on actual recorded conditions at that airport station. Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in early August 2026 and any broader climate pattern announcements from meteorological services. The current crowd assessment appears to undervalue the likelihood of temperatures within normal August ranges for Wuhan, given the city's consistent thermal profile during this period.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.