توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s August heat is normally well established by the start of the month: average high temperatures cluster around 33°C to 34°C, with typical monthly maxima reported near 37°C and occasional extremes close to 39°C in the historical record.[4][20] That makes a **0% YES** price on a “highest temperature” outcome look misaligned with the climate baseline, because the city routinely posts readings comfortably in the 30s even in wet, humid conditions.[1][17][20]

The most useful comparator is the recent August profile rather than a broad annual average. Guangzhou’s early-August readings have repeatedly printed in the mid-30s, with travel and climate references showing highs of 33.5°C to 36.2°C across the first week of August and August averages around 32°C to 33°C.[4][5][18] Forecast-style guidance for August 2026 also points to daily highs in roughly the 89°F to 93°F range, which is about 32°C to 34°C, implying that a warm day well above the monthly mean is a live possibility even without an exceptional heatwave.[9][10]

For traders, the key catalyst is the airport station observation itself rather than the citywide forecast. Guangzhou in August is hot, humid and rain-prone, and cloud cover or thunderstorms can cap the day’s peak, while a dry, sunny spell can push the high into the mid-30s; the market resolves on the highest temperature logged at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on the day, using Wunderground’s history page.[16][18][19] Because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, late-day local heating still matters, and any forecast updates, typhoon-track changes or rain-band shifts affecting Guangdong will be the main drivers of whether the final reading sits in the low, mid or upper 30s.[18][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.