توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s maximum temperature on 27 July will be set by a single daily high, so the market is really about whether the city peaks in the low, mid or upper 30s Celsius. The current book is leaning to **30°C** at 39%, with **31°C** next at 25%, which implies traders expect a hot but not exceptional afternoon rather than a break into the mid-30s.[1] That sits comfortably inside the usual Tokyo July band, where average summer temperatures are around **25°C to 30°C**, but conditions can push above **30°C** in peak summer.[2][4]

For context, late July in Tokyo often becomes the sharpest heat of the season, with recent commentary describing daytime highs of **30°C to 33°C** as typical and **35°C to 38°C** not uncommon when the urban heat island effect bites.[3] That makes the market’s 0% YES pricing on any single band an artefact of how the contract is structured rather than a view that the airport will stay cool; the realistic question is whether Haneda lands nearer the modelled average or overshoots into the hotter brackets.[1][3][5]

The main catalysts are weather-model runs, cloud cover, rainfall and any Typhoon-related changes affecting eastern Japan, because even a brief sea-breeze shift or afternoon shower can cap the day’s maximum. Tokyo in July is also humid and rainfall remains meaningful, with July precipitation cited around **156 mm to 169 mm**, so traders should watch for updates to the forecast track and timing of any wet weather around the afternoon heating window.[4][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.