Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 59% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 57% |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) | 55% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 38% |
| Map 1 Winner | 32% |
| Map 2 Winner | 23% |
| Match Winner | 20% |
Market context
3DMAX’s quarter-final against MOUZ is being priced with MOUZ as the cleaner side on paper, but the current 32% YES mark leaves room for the sort of upset that 3DMAX have already delivered in this event. The French side arrive off a useful run through the BLAST Bounty bracket, while MOUZ have the stronger overall profile and a more established ceiling in best-of-three play.[3][4]
The head-to-head still points firmly towards MOUZ. They beat 3DMAX 2-0 at ESL Pro League Season 22, and the series included a strong 13-5 Inferno and a comeback on Overpass after 3DMAX had led 8-5.[5][6] Longer-run meeting data also shows MOUZ winning the last two recorded BO3s between the sides, both 2-0, which supports the market’s lean towards the favourites rather than a split-series outlook.[1][4]
For traders, the key catalyst is whether either team makes a late roster or schedule change before the BLAST Arena Studios fixture in Attard, Malta, which is listed for 30 July in the quarter-finals.[2] Recent match reporting has MOUZ continuing to win with depth across the map pool, while 3DMAX have looked more volatile but capable of punching above their ranking when their entry play lands.[3][5] Any confirmation of veto comfort on 3DMAX’s best maps, or a last-minute stand-in, would matter more here than the broader season form because the market resolves on this single BO3.[2][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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