Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-4.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-3.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 97% |
| Map 2 Winner | 93% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 91% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 91% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+1.5) | 88% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 73% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-3.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-4.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-7.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-5.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-6.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-5.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-6.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sentinels face 2GAME Esports in a lower bracket opening match during the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In on 20 August 2026. The best-of-three fixture carries significant weight for both rosters: Sentinels, a franchise organisation with established infrastructure and player salaries, enter as heavy favourites despite recent roster instability, whilst 2GAME Esports represent the challenger bracket's competitive depth. The 100% implied probability reflects Sentinels' organisational pedigree and historical dominance in North American Valorant, though such extreme odds warrant scrutiny given the format's inherent volatility.
Lower bracket play-in matches have historically produced upsets when favourites field experimental line-ups or face motivated underdogs with nothing to lose. 2GAME's qualification into this stage indicates they've cleared regional qualifying rounds, suggesting roster cohesion and map preparation. Recent roster moves within the Sentinels organisation—particularly any mid-season adjustments or player departures—would directly impact their current form. The settlement window extends to 21 August at 03:00 UTC, allowing for schedule delays common in esports fixtures.
Traders should monitor official VCT Americas announcements regarding confirmed line-ups, any last-minute substitutions, or technical issues that might force postponement. Sentinels' performance in preceding Stage 2 matches and 2GAME's recent LAN results provide concrete data points; the absence of head-to-head history between these specific rosters means recent tournament placements become the primary form indicator. Equipment issues or player availability changes announced within 48 hours of match time could shift the probability meaningfully from its current extreme position.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: Sentinels vs 2GAME Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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