Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Eric Barlow | 79% |
| Megan Degenfelder | 22% |
| Brent Bien | 1% |
| Joseph Kibler | 0% |
| Reid Rasner | 0% |
| Bo Biteman | 0% |
| Chuck Gray | 0% |
| Chip Neiman | 0% |
| Ogen Driskill | 0% |
| Mark Gordon | 0% |
| Harriet Hageman | 0% |
| Curt Meier | 0% |
| Tara Nethercott | 0% |
| Cheri Steinmetz | 0% |
| Paul Ulrich | 0% |
| Candidate A | 0% |
| Candidate B | 0% |
| Candidate C | 0% |
| Candidate D | 0% |
| Candidate E | 0% |
| Candidate F | 0% |
| Candidate G | 0% |
| Candidate H | 0% |
| Candidate I | 0% |
| Candidate J | 0% |
| Candidate K | 0% |
| Candidate L | 0% |
| Candidate M | 0% |
| Candidate N | 0% |
| Candidate O | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 79% probability to توقع: wyoming governor republican primary winner. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the pr…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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