Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien (-1.5) | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Heart of Midlothian met SK Rapid Wien in Europa Conference League qualifying on 20 August, with the market sitting at 0% YES on the more-markets side despite a tie that had already produced a 0-0 live scoreline at one point and was balanced enough to reach 2-2 by full time. The underlying read is that this was not a lopsided first leg: both teams had recent competitive wins, but neither arrived with a clean bill of health, and the price was being anchored by a tight pre-match expectation rather than a dominant mismatch.
Comparable cases point towards restraint on any one-off “more markets” angle when the fixture is shaped by injuries and European caution. Hearts had several absences flagged, including Stephen Kingsley, Craig Halkett, Malachi Fagan-Walcott and Eduardo Ageu, while Rapid were also missing multiple players, among them Dominic Vincze, Martin Ndzie, Daniel Nunoo, Claudy Mbuyi and Andrija Radulovic. Hearts had come off a 6-2 domestic cup win and a heavy European loss to Benfica, while Rapid had built momentum with a 4-1 aggregate qualifying win and an 8-0 league result, a mix that usually keeps secondary betting markets sensitive to late line-up confirmation rather than early sentiment.
The main catalysts were the confirmed starting XIs, any late changes to the defensive core, and whether either side rotated after recent congested schedules. Rapid’s European progression and league blow-out suggested attacking confidence, but the injury list also left them exposed to any downgrade in continuity, while Hearts’ European schedule and missing defenders made their set-piece and card-related angles more volatile than their headline result line. Any market movement would have been driven most by team news close to kick-off and by whether the match state forced one side to abandon the first-leg caution that often suppresses auxiliary markets.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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