توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s temperature market for 21 August is anchored by a hot, humid late-summer baseline, with the Observatory’s August normal mean daily maximum at 31.1C and recent daily reports showing the city repeatedly pushing into the low-to-mid 30s this month.[12][10] That means the likely settlement band is usually governed by whether the Observatory station gets a full afternoon of sunshine or is capped by showers, sea breezes, or widespread cloud rather than by any one brief spike.

Recent comparable cases point to a volatile but still heat-favoured setup. Hong Kong hit 36.9C on 9 August, the highest since records began, after Typhoon Dolphin enhanced subsiding air, and officials later said the city had just endured nine consecutive days at 33C or above at the Observatory.[3][10][14] By contrast, mid-month readings also showed the Observatory nearer 29-30C while other districts still ran hotter, underlining how local rain and circulation changes can hold the headline maximum below the citywide extremes.[15][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s morning and early-afternoon updates, plus any fresh rain or thunderstorm warnings that cut off insolation before the daily peak. The seasonal forecast issued on 20 August still leans normal to above-normal for August-October, which supports another warm outcome, but the same forecast also flags near-normal rainfall as a live possibility, leaving room for a lower peak if showers arrive around midday.[1] The market cannot resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the final Daily Extract for 21 August, so any intraday move will depend on whether conditions stay dry long enough for the maximum to be set in the afternoon.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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