توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 16 August 2026, using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground as the authoritative source. This represents a specific meteorological measurement rather than a forecast or summary figure, with resolution dependent on actual recorded data from the station's instruments on that date.

New York's August temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical August 16th data shows considerable year-to-year variation; the National Weather Service records indicate temperatures on this date have ranged from 71°F to 91°F over recent decades. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about whether extreme heat will materialise. August 2026 sits within the typical Atlantic hurricane season, which can influence temperature patterns through cloud cover and moisture dynamics, though direct impacts remain difficult to predict this far ahead.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from NOAA in the months preceding August 2026, particularly their summer outlook issued in May, which provides guidance on temperature and precipitation anomalies. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation phases will influence broader regional climate patterns. Near-term catalysts include spring and early summer temperature trends in 2026, which often correlate with August conditions. Any significant shifts in long-range weather models released in July would be material to reassess probabilities, particularly regarding high-pressure system positioning over the Northeast.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.