توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather in mid-August typically sits within the hot and humid range characteristic of the city's summer monsoon season. The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 14 August will determine this market's resolution, with data sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative measure rather than summary figures.

Historical August temperatures at Pudong Airport show consistent patterns. Over the past two decades, mid-August highs have ranged between 32°C and 36°C on most years, with occasional peaks exceeding 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of temperatures falling outside whatever upper threshold this market's resolution brackets define. August 2023 recorded a peak of 35.1°C on the 14th, whilst August 2022 saw 34.8°C on the same date—both well within typical summer parameters for the region.

Traders monitoring this market should track mid-range weather forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts from China's Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns affecting the Yangtze River Delta. Typhoon activity during late summer can occasionally suppress temperatures, though such systems typically arrive later in the month. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August, allowing only morning observations from Shanghai to count towards resolution.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.