توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's August climate presents a consistent pattern of extreme heat and humidity. The city experiences peak summer conditions in mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. Historical data from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station shows August 16 has recorded temperatures as high as 34.8°C in recent years, with the station's Daily Observations table providing the most granular measurement standard for settlement purposes.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either market illiquidity or a misalignment between available temperature brackets and realistic outcomes. August 16 falls within Shenzhen's hottest fortnight, when subtropical high-pressure systems dominate the region. Comparable August 16 readings from 2015–2023 cluster between 32–35°C, with only occasional excursions above 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The absence of trading activity suggests the market may lack sufficient bracket granularity to capture likely outcomes, or traders are avoiding exposure until closer to the settlement date.

Monitoring tropical cyclone forecasts and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns through early August 2026 will be critical. Any typhoon system tracking toward the Pearl River Delta could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst persistent high-pressure ridging would push readings toward the upper end of the historical range. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Bao'an Airport remains the binding resolution source, making real-time station data more reliable than summary forecasts or alternative weather services.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.