توقع: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in June 2026 under new chairman Kevin Warsh, eliminating its prior forecast for a 2026 cut and pivoting toward a potential hike by October amid inflation spikes from the Iran war[8]. This hawkish shift directly contradicts the market’s 84% YES probability on multiple cuts, as the Fed’s dot plot now projects a median end-2026 rate of 3.8%, implying at least one increase rather than easing[8].

Historically, such a pivot from expected cuts to hikes has invalidated similar bullish bets; in late 2025, the Fed cut three times, but the June 2026 meeting reversed that trajectory entirely, with 18 of 19 officials now expecting a rate rise by year-end[8]. Bond futures currently price only 16% odds of a January cut and 45% for April, with the market anticipating just two 25-bp cuts (50 bps total) in 2026—far below the threshold implied by the current probability[2].

Traders must monitor the July FOMC meeting, where Warsh’s team will assess whether oil-driven inflation persists, and the September dot plot update, which could confirm or delay the projected October hike[5][8]. Key dependencies include US jobs data and inflation reports, as sticky prices could force the Fed to hold steady or raise rates further, making multiple cuts impossible before December 31[2][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.